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escalating violence in our community
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Because of the size of these you may need to scroll across to see all of the data
This graph gives a good indication of what we are up against. Note that the growth in violence in crime is not driven by population growth. Our population reached two million in 1952 and three million in 1973, the period of fastest growth (although it was already slowing at that point) and growth has further slowed since then and we have only recently exceeded four million. Violent crime soared in the mid and late 80's well after the bulk of those born in the period of greatest growth would have been past 25 (the age group 17-25 is generally the most likely to commit crime). See population data here.
This graph shows the rising tide of violent crime in New Zealand over the last fifty years since the post-war liberal social experiment began. Violent offending has increased at least 10 fold in the time it took New Zealand's population to double!
During the 1990s public outrage at violent crime grew culminating in a citizens initiated referendum in 1999 where 92% of New Zealanders voted for tougher minimum sentences for violent crime.
Other notable events;
1993 : MMP Referendum held. Although only 55% of electors took part, an overwhelming 85% voted to change their electoral system. In the second part of the poll, 70% favoured MMP. As Labour leader Mike Moore put it: 'The people didn't speak on Saturday. They screamed.'
1996 : First MMP election
1999 : Law and order referendum where 92% voted for longer sentences for violent offending. Well if 75% of 55% of the people is a scream what is 92%?
2002 : The Parole Act 2002 and the Sentencing Act 2002 substantially replace the Criminal Justice Act 1985 bring in the possibility of non-parole periods and longer sentences for violent crimes.
Note. Many documents indicate that the total crime rate is falling in New Zealand since 1992. This is only due to a large decrease in "dishonesty offences". Possible reasons for minor offences to fall are changes in the recording practices of the government or legislative changes in the definition of offences so that what was previously an offence is no longer so such as lowering the alcohol purchase age.
References :
Statistics New Zealand/Tatauranga Aotearoa (2006) Wellington, N.Z. Crime in New Zealand. Statistics New Zealand
Soboleva, Nataliya, Kazakova, Nina, and Chong, Jin (2006). Conviction and Sentencing of Offenders in New Zealand: 1996 to 2005.
This graph is a combination of police statistics (1) and court statistics (2, 3) showing the extent of the increase in the violent crime problem over the last three decades.
Reported crime : Number of cases investigated by police.
Resolved crime : Number of cases resolved by police. this includes those cases referred to the courts, dealt with by a warning or unable to be prosecuted. This graph is a "moving average" to smooth out crimes that may not be resolved in the same year they are reported.
Non-custodial sentences : These sentences include community, monetary, deferment, conviction and discharge.
Custodial sentences : The offender is confined including home detention. Custodial sentences have not increased significantly over the 25+ years, remaining at between 19 and 27% of all sentences.
Notes: For a number of reasons the police and Justice Department statistics are not comparable on a yearly basis. There are several reasons for this including lengthy delays in prosecution (where trials are held over to following years) and different categories and reporting systems used by the two services. However comparison of the overall trends is valid. The discrepancy between resolved and convicted cases is partly explained by referral to the youth court, family group conferences, sentencing for several crimes at once and recidivism, since police statistics are for crimes, whereas the justice department statistics are for criminals sentenced.
Thanks to Kevin Hicks for his invaluable assistance in collating this information and providing the new graphs